rupert ([info]sweetcoz) wrote,
@ 2005-07-07 01:24:00
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if you don't like it when people cut and post things they have found on the internet don't read on
from author james kunstler's 'blog' http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary13.html

February 28, 2005
America is, after all, the world's most powerful nation.
This sentiment has been boinging around the major media lately, especially in stories and columns about the health of the dollar. But what does it really mean?
We have the world's biggest nuclear arsenal for sure. We could vaporize every world city if it came to that. But Russia has enough nuclear warheads and ICBMs to stop the world's clock, too (while standards of living and life expectancy there continue to decline). For that matter, Britain, France, Israel, and China have enough atomic military juice to seriously fuck up the current order of things.
What America definitely doesn't have is enough oil and natural gas to run the nation's economy as it currently exists -- as a chain of realtors driving SUVs to tanning booths to impress house-buyers borrowing money from lenders who flip the mortgages to government sponsored entities who can't add up a column of figures, even with the help of computers.
Speaking of math, I did the oil figures a couple of weeks ago, and it's worth repeating. Of the the 80 million barrels a day the world burns, we burn one quarter of that, or 20 million barrels a day. Every five days we burn a hundred million barrels. Every fifty days America burns one billion barrels of oil. Every year we burn seven billion barrels. The US has 28 billion barrels of oil left. If we burned every last drop of our own oil, and somehow lost access to foreign imports, our oil would last four more years.
Four more years of easy motoring, bargain shopping, RV vacations, and trading up to bigger houses farther out in the rural gloaming.
If I was a young economist, I would reflect on this situation and perhaps conclude that the American economy doesn't have great long-term prospects. In fact, I'd have to imagine the American standard of living falling of a cliff within the lifetime of a TV sitcom. I'd have to wonder about American "power" and the actual value of the dollar.
It's a good thing that friendly nations like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela are willing to sell us oil. That way, we don't have to use up all our remaining oil in four years. And its a good thing we can pay for that oil in dollars. What else could we trade for it? Tanning booth hours? Back episodes of "Sex in the City?" Free day passes to Six Flags?
Of course, the global oil peak implies that all the nations of the world will have less total energy to divvy up. I just don't see where the United States is in a particularly favorable position on this. Have you heard of any plans to reduce our extreme dependence on cars? I don't think our supreme leader has even uttered the world "railroad" since he came on the national scene. Are we going to subcontract the Jolly Green Giant to go around America moving things closer together so we don't have to burn so much gasoline?
Excuse me for saying this, but I don't think we have any idea what we're going to do. It causes me to wonder how powerful we really are, apart from our ability to blow things up.



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[info]aztec_mummy
2005-07-07 09:24 am UTC (link)
dude, do you ever know how to harsh people's mellow, or what?

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[info]skaat
2005-07-07 03:38 pm UTC (link)
Coal, fucking Coal is Bushes answer to the fuel crisis.
Look ahead to the mighty future! Americans will travel in futuristic new vehicles like the one below!


Meanwhile Europeans are working on hydrogen combustion engines, and planning to start installing fuel stations in the near future.

With their obsession with mennonite grade christianity, I think coal burning engines and horse labour is right up that fucked up shit pile of a countries alley.

Surprise surprise, terrorist bombings in london. Reeks of american war support initiative to me. "Watch the british populations view on supporting our war change when 'they' hit them at home, Mr. President, hopefully in a month or 2 as many limeys will be coming home in boxes as our boys"

Fuck I need some Dead Kennedys right now..

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[info]rambletron3000
2005-07-07 04:11 pm UTC (link)
Can someone please explain to me where the power to go into these hydrogen batteries is coming from?

Oh, that's right, new, 'clean' coal power plants!

Whoops.

The only solution (as Kunstler doesn't fail to shut up about) is rebuilding our cities the correct way, so people can actually walk to shit.

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[info]skaat
2005-07-07 04:24 pm UTC (link)
I didn't say Hydrogen batteries/fuel cells. I said hydrogen combustion engines. You have a perfect seal at the pumping station that transfers hydrogen into the fuel tank. Hydrogen is as volitile as gas vapour so can it drive a standard combustion engine. I'm not going to explain the combustion engine to you. The by product is water, the hydrogen gas naturally bonds with oxygen. H2O.

BMW has a working combustion engine race car they had up to 330+ Kph on a track. Within the next few years they are planning to install hydrogen stations across germany. Their first phase of cars will run on hydrogen or gasoline and have tanks for both. This way you can run on gasoline if the next hydrogen station is to distant.

GMC,Ford, etc are probably still putting their efforts into some gas guzzling fucking SUV with not 1 but 2 DVD displays or something.

They need to start small with consumer vehicles, THEN worry about industrial oil consumption.

Walk everywhere? I'm all for walking but sometimes you don't have the time, so how does that work, unless you create a warp tunnel to turn a 60 hour hike across town into 5 minute gait thats a pretty stupid suggestion.

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[info]rambletron3000
2005-07-07 05:12 pm UTC (link)
Again, this hydrogen has to be extracted from somewhere. We have some reasonably efficient ways to do it, but all involve at least some degree of putting energy into the chemical process to get the pure hydrogen out. Oh, and apparently North America is reaching a natural gas peak (one possible source), too, and it's much harder to ship from overseas than oil.

Hydrogen is good in that it reduces noxious emissions in cities (excepting that water vapour is a major greenhouse gas, it'd be interesting to see how much came back down in increased rainfall and such, though). It's bad in that it's not that much more energy efficient to extract than oil, and we haven't had decades of technology refinement to make it so. I'd be all for more nuclear plants, personally. But those take a long time to build, and no one wants one in their backyard.

The walk everywhere philosophy is all about building old-school neighbourhoods, that modern zoning laws actively discourage. E.g. neighbourhoods with people of different income levels, basement apartments, apartments over shops....basically making sure the service workers can live near the 'high class' workers. This is what the Bay Area got horribly, horribly wrong, and what OCRI & co. are doing a reasonable job to make sure doesn't happen in Ottawa.

I used to rent a room from a doctor and his wife in the Glebe, who works at the Glebe centre. They drove a Volvo, but didn't really need too. Except for possibly going to the ridiclously located Corel Centre.

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[info]rankingfullstop
2005-07-08 01:45 pm UTC (link)
i have to agree with you. we need to change our philosophy on how we set up neighbourhoods, particularly suburban ones. they are designed for cars and not people, and render people dependent on them. there is no such thing as a main street in modern suburbia like you see in older towns, which should be one of the first things changed... making sure there is a main economic vein that runs through the town, not scattered strip malls.


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[info]rambletron3000
2005-07-08 08:55 pm UTC (link)
Look up the "New Urbansim". Kunstler even has some problems with them, because he's a bit of an extremist nutbar, but he was formerly associated with them. They're on the trolley. I especially like the idea that building codes should be pictures, not stacks of numbers.

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[info]sweetcoz
2005-07-07 07:17 pm UTC (link)
instead of expanding the never-ending highways, passenger rail should be vastly increased across north america.

in reference to the hydrogen issue: 1) no source of energy is as efficient as oil, 2) you can't just plop hydrogen into "gas-stations", all the infrastructure involved in transporting (which is another issue entirely) the source of energy will need to be updated, 3) as kunstler points out in "the long emergency", p. 111, "The problem is that hydrogen is not exactly a fuel. It's more accurately the a "carrier" of energy than a fuel. It takes more energy to manufacture hydrogen than the hydrogen itself produces." i'm pretty sure MM is getting at this with the allusion to nuclear power, but as he says NIMBY!

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[info]rambletron3000
2005-07-08 08:57 pm UTC (link)
Oh man, I'd swim next to a pebble bed reactor or a CANDU-II. But a) I can't swim; and b) we live in a society where we had to rename NMR (Nuclear Magnetic Resonance) to MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging).

But yeah, I recently got into Kunstler's blog and it's pretty entertaining and informative (once you wade through the hyperbole and the-end-is-nighism).

You sure do have a way of making controversial posts, eh?

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[info]sweetcoz
2005-07-08 11:23 pm UTC (link)
might as well be controversial.. too many people have unknowingly fallen into complete and utter complacency.

i don't think kunstler would say that, generally, the end is nigh; but rather that industrial economies as we know them cannot continue to operate as they do given their reliance on cheap and abundant
oil. i can't get enough of his writings. it's about time someone pulled their head out of the (oil) sand.

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[info]rambletron3000
2005-07-09 03:31 pm UTC (link)
I like Kunstler in the same way I like Michael Moore...I wouldn't want him running everything, but you need extreme views to get a compromise that's actually in the centre.

My current favourite controversial blog is slacktivist's coverage of the Left Behind novels. This horrible, not-even-actually-Christian dreck has sold like 55 million copies, and the guy making the video game gets to hang out with Mel Gibson. It's also just horribly written. This guy (actually very Christian, but anti-Bush) is just dismantling it page by page. Hilarious and scary. Start from the bottom, if you have the time.

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[info]sweetcoz
2005-07-09 05:28 pm UTC (link)
have you read what kunstler thinks about moore?

"The grossly obese and slovenly Moore is a poster child forWalMart shoppers everywhere, for their childish addiction to cheap goodies and lack of impulse control. Like the public he represents, Moore has no cognizance of the larger problems behind the churn of recent events, for instance the public's own surrender of its allegience and personal sovereignty to giant corporations and the cheap blandishments they offer in return for slavish loyalty. All you get from Moore is shopper's remorse. He's never gotten over the fact that his hometown of Flint, Michigan, sold its soul to General Motors, and eventually got fucked for doing it."

etc, etc.. http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary10.html

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[info]strong_bad_esp
2005-07-07 04:58 pm UTC (link)
but I don't think we have any idea what we're going to do

it is my contention that the reason being for this is, and i quote micheal bloomberg addressing the people of new york and the world only minutes ago "the war on terror is not over. And it is a WAR we MUST WIN

riiiiiiiiiiiight, focusing all your time on fighting a noun that describes an emotion. good luck on winning that war. are you going to drive in your oil fuled cars to the country of terror, and than bomb them with your nuclear war heads? well, keep focusing your time on that, cause im pretty sure it will pay off.

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[info]groening
2005-09-11 07:28 am UTC (link)
you could probably make a nifty power plant by designing a giant piston the size of a building that you inject explosives into, like hydrogen bombs. There are a lot of explosives in the world that could go to good use that way...or blow up the city..

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[info]afternoonnaps
2005-10-16 10:54 pm UTC (link)
cozzz. you don't use this thing anymore ever, do you.

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